Was surprised by this
Have been tracking with Cronometer for a while now and have been seeing pretty steady weight loss. Just for giggles I looked at the last 4 week. Calories say I have a deficit of ~1000 calories per day (I track all food and activity comes from my Garmin). If thats true, then 28x1000 = 28000 calories over that time. 28000/3500 means I should have lost 8.0 lbs. Morning nude weight on Jan 1 = 235.6. Morning nude weight on Feb 1 = 227 which is 8.6# lower. Trend was ~linear throughout the 11 measurements I took in Jan. I am a scientist by trade so used to dealing with numbers and prediction, but I guess I was surprised to see it match up so well. I am still a little skeptical of how well it worked out, but I think it at least means I am tracking my calories in pretty well (not over or under counting) and tracking my activity pretty well (also over or under counting).